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The Most Influential RENCASIA Constituents

Ticker Company Influence, pts Leading Movers DGO LN Equity Dragon Oil PLC +0.15 KMG LI Equity KazMunaiGas Exploration Production +0.13 MATD LN Equity Petro Matad Ltd +0.12 CGH LN Equity Chaarat Gold Holdings Ltd +0.03 MXP LN Equity Max Petroleum PLC +0.03 Lagging Movers TPL CN Equity Tethys Petroleum Ltd -0.25 ZKM LI Equity Zhaikmunai LP -0.28 1878 HK Equity SouthGobi Resources Ltd -0.28 HSBK LI Equity Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC -0.34 CG CN Equity Centerra Gold Inc -0.55

Index Movers

Composition of RENCASIA
Number	Ticker	Company	Industry	MktCap, $mn	Weight in Index
1	1878 HK Equity	SouthGobi Resources Ltd	Metals & Mining	1,274.46	2.34
2	CG CN Equity	Centerra Gold Inc	Metals & Mining	4,715.30	11.84
3	CGH LN Equity	Chaarat Gold Holdings Ltd	Basic Materials	93.56	0.63
4	DGO LN Equity	Dragon Oil PLC	Oil&Gas Alternatives	4,199.67	13.69
5	ENRC LN Equity	Eurasian Natural Resources Corp PLC	Metals & Mining	14,755.05	14.80
6	HSBK LI Equity	Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan JSC	Banking	1,766.36	2.97
7	KAZ LN Equity	Kazakhmys PLC	Metals & Mining	9,765.31	17.05
8	KMG LI Equity	KazMunaiGas Exploration Production	Oil & Gas	6,669.59	13.24
9	KYS LN Equity	Kryso Resources PLC	Basic Materials	116.63	0.53
10	KZTK KZ Equity	Kazakhtelecom JSC	Telecoms	1,582.19	3.15
11	MATD LN Equity	Petro Matad Ltd	Oil & Gas	94.34	0.50
12	MXP LN Equity	Max Petroleum PLC	Oil&Gas Alternatives	161.12	0.49
13	SATC KZ Equity	SAT & Co	Basic Materials	545.55	0.52
14	TPL CN Equity	Tethys Petroleum Ltd	Oil & Gas	148.29	1.17
15	UUU CN Equity	Uranium One Inc	Uranium	2,639.01	11.28
16	ZKM LI Equity	Zhaikmunai LP	Oil&Gas Alternatives	2,035.00	5.81

Recently Reports

January 24, 2012 Central Asia: Dragon Oil – Year of the Dragon	2 Pages PDF file 364 KB
Growth, growth and growth... Dragon Oil (DGO) started the Chinese Year of the Dragon on 23 January by releasing a positive trading update. The company reiterated its previously disclosed 2011 exit rate of 71.5kb/d, with production averaging 61.5kb/d last year (+30% YoY), and its target of a 15% production increase in 2012, underpinned by an intensive drilling programme.
January 19, 2012 Kazakhstan: ENRC - Time for a change?	19 Pages PDF file 899 KB
We have lowered our estimates for ENRC, as demand erosion in stainless steel, weaker commodity markets and negative corporate newsflow continue to affect the stock price.
January 12, 2012 EMEA Telecoms Quarterly: Focusing on CIS and African geographies – 3Q11 wrap and look ahead	49 Pages PDF file 1.24 MB
In 2011 (YoY) the telecoms sector was almost entirely down in dollar terms. Only two stocks – Rostelecom prefs and Kazakhtelecom – managed to end the year in the black. Both for very specific reasons: prefs have mostly traded at a 50% discount to common shares after Rostelecom was reconstituted in May 2011 and rallied on the belief that the company’s BoD would approve a generous dividend policy (this did not materialise); Kazakhtelecom announced the sale of its 49% stake in the leading Kazakh mobile operator K-Cell to TeliaSonera for $1.52bn.
December 9, 2011 Central Asia: Max Petroleum - ASK2 disappoints; investment case intact	2 Pages PDF file 208 KB
ASK2: No oil. Max Petroleum (MXP) reported this morning (9 December) that its exploration well targeting the Triassic section failed to encounter a commercially viable reservoir. The well will now be completed as a producer in the shallower Jurassic section of the reservoir. The stock has already reacted to the negative news, falling c. 8% this morning. We want to reiterate that it is the nature of exploration risk that the odds can work against a company, and to date success at MXP’s post-portfolio has been 38%, so less than half of the wells are expected to translate into discoveries.
December 7, 2011 Central Asia: Max Petroleum - Stepping up to the plate	30 Pages PDF file 1.71 MB
We initiate coverage of Max Petroleum with a BUY rating and GBp35 target price, implying 150% upside potential to the current price. Max Petroleum (MXP) is a small-cap Kazakhstan-based E&P play, targeting large resource potential in the pre-salt Pre-Caspian basin. This area has produced some of the world’s largest pre-salt oil & gas discoveries, such as the Tengiz, Kashagan and Karachaganak fields.
November 24, 2011 Халык Банк: Результаты за девять месяцев	3 Pages PDF file 374 KB
Рекомендация. Результаты Халык Банка за девять месяцев 2011 г. продолжают известные тенденции: кредитный портфель без изменений (за исключением сегмента потребительского кредитования), высокая доля проблемных кредитов, адекватный уровень капитализации и избыточная денежная позиция.
November 23, 2011 Kazakhstan: Halyk Bank – 9M11 results review	1 Pages PDF file 219 KB
Recommendation. Halyk’s 9M11 results show a continuation of trends seen in the bank’s previous reports, with a stagnant loan portfolio (except in the consumer lending segment), high NPLs, adequate capital and an excessive cash position. We think the market is fully pricing in the relative safety of Halyk’s funding profile. Despite 350-bpt spread-widening in Halyk’s paper and its subsequent return to August price levels, we think it would be fair to say that the bonds have reacted to market volatility by losing liquidity rather than with a sharp price action. At current levels (about 600 bpts to swaps, or 7.4% YtM for the five-year duration of HSBK17), we see no trade ideas in Halyk bonds.
November 15, 2011 Mongolia: SouthGobi Resources - Impending catalyst	8 Pages PDF file 227 KB
Change of control? Subject to a favourable arbitration ruling in December, Rio Tinto (RIO LN) could take control of Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) on 18 January 2012 when the standstill agreement limiting RIO to a 49% interest expires. Should RIO take control of Ivanhoe, it would retain the Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold project, but likely divest non-core assets including IVN’s 57% SouthGobi interest. The best outcome for minority shareholders would likely be a sale to a strategic investor, at a premium to the current share price with a bid for the remainder.
November 10, 2011 Kazakhstan: Kazakhmys – In search of short-term catalysts	17 Pages PDF file 930 KB
Corporate activity for ENRC still a likely driver: Kazakhmys continues to underperform the copper universe. Its 26% stake in ENRC accounts for GBP4.40/share (46%) of the current share price. Aside from copper markets, the key structural catalyst for Kazakhmys is the disposal or restructuring of the ENRC stake. In early 2011, market speculation centred on the possible acquisition of a sizeable stake in ENRC by acquisition-hungry Glencore (as reported by the Sunday Times and Bloomberg). Although Glencore did not confirm any plan to bid for ENRC, the UK Takeover Panel responded, on 15 June, by barring Glencore from bidding for ENRC for six months – a restriction we believe expires towards the end of December 2011. Given the significant potential for synergies between Glencore and ENRC, we would not discount Glencore returning. However Kazakhmys is not the only potential large seller of ENRC, with the three core shareholders controlling 43.8%. With ENRC currently trading at GBP6.70/share, we believe a material premium and a healthier price would be required to stimulate interest in a sale by any party. Kazakhmys has to realise more value for its 26% stake in ENRC as markets recover.
October 24, 2011 Central Asia: Dragon Oil - Delivering solid production growth	1 Pages PDF file 211 KB
Targeting 100kb/d by 2015. Today (24 October), Dragon Oil announced an oil production target of reaching a 100kb/d plateau by 2015; it aims to sustain this rate for at least five years. The likelihood of reaching this target is backed up by this year’s higher-than-expected production, which averaged 61kb/d during 3Q11; the company expects it to end the year at 70kb/d.

All Reports

Renaissance Capital Central Asia Equity Index performances
RENCASIA value statistics 2007 2008 2009 Open 930.00 1,000.00 334.43 Close 1,000.00 334.43 677.44 Average 1,062.00 851.12 482.83	RENCASIA return 2007 2008 2009 Capital gain return 7.50 -66.56 102.57 Dividend yield 1.10 6.41 2.43 Total return 8.60 -60.15 0.00
Indexed stocks Market capitalization, $mn 2007 2008 2009 Open 42,838.00 69,178.00 21,794.00 Close 47,643.00 21,794.00 53,989.89 Average 48,669.00 58,898.66 41,946.86	RENCASIA income 2007 2008 2009 P/B 1.98 0.66 1.13 ROE 20.32 20.98 18.31 ROA 4.19 5.29 4.84 P/E 9.74 3.15 6.15 Net income, $mn 1,204.00 1,669.80 1,853.92 Net income growth, % 49.00 35.00 11.03

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